My colleague, Nancy Tucker, recently attended a seminar on global trends, and shared with staff the following interesting statistics:

• By 2025, 50 percent of China’s population will be middle class.
• By 2015, there will be 1.2 billion internet users alone among China, India, Brazil, Russian and Malaysia, dwarfing the total in the U.S. and Japan.
• Brazil uses social networking more than any other emerging market country.
• One-third of the world’s population lives in emerging market cities and drives more than 60 percent of the global GDP. These cities will increase by an additional 1.3 billion people by 2030.

These dates aren’t that far away (OK – by 2030 I hope I’ve been retired for a while, but who knows – I might still be writing for this blog). Many of the dates are close enough, though, that they should figure into business long-range planning.

I don’t know what these trends mean to your business, but you (or some of your new hires) can figure it into your thought process for the future. I know PMA will.

In tomorrow’s Federal Register, the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service will publish its proposal for a national leafy greens marketing agreement. This proposal has been in development since 2009, when USDA held a series of regional public hearings to determine the feasibility of a marketing agreement for these products.

In terms of governance, USDA recommends that production areas be divided into eight zones to recognize groupings of states with similar climates, production environments, crops, agricultural practices, and other factors. The zones also provide for diversity and representation among the managing members of the agreement, specifically acknowledging alternative farming practices (i.e. organic and diversified farms) and small businesses. All members would be selected and appointed by the Secretary of Agriculture.

With regard to current federal food safety work on fresh produce, the NLGMA program standards would apply FDA produce food safety regulations and FDA guidelines. In addition, the USDA AMS Inspection Service would have the authority to accredit other entities and license their auditors to audit on its behalf, including NOP certified agents, FDA inspectors, and third party auditing services accredited by FDA.

Participation in the NLGMA is voluntary; however, once a company chooses to participate, compliance will be mandatory for one crop year. After one year, growers would have the opportunity to withdraw or opt out of the program. Additional information can be found on the USDA website.

PMA has been a supporter of a national leafy greens marketing agreement. We have long advocated industry involvement in regulation – bringing the real-world practicalities of our industry to the rules that govern it. We’ll continue to advocate for smart governance that provides practical, effective solutions that will help our members succeed in the marketplace and build consumer confidence and demand for fresh produce.

A new study has found that women are 14 percent more likely than men to select environmentally-friendly packaging over non-“green,” more-convenient alternatives. Men surveyed were more apt to select products packaged to provide greater convenience.

World IP Today: Convenience vs. Conscience - Food Packaging in the 21st Century found that people are fairly evenly split between environmental conscience and consumer convenience when it comes to making food- and beverage-packaging decisions. In terms of labeling, while patents mentioning biodegradability, recycling and barrier films are increasing in frequency, a lack of standardization in what constitutes an environmentally-friendly package has resulted in ambiguity as to which packages really are “green.” This issue is expected to receive more attention in coming months as various organizations work on standards.

Other key areas revealed in the study are innovations in tamper-evident packaging and interactive packages that use RFID technology to track food from source to destination.

If you’re interested in packaging, we have resources for our members on the PMA website. In addition, we have the Packaging Impact Award: Excellence in Packaging, which is presented during our annual Fresh Summit International Convention & Exposition. Be on the lookout for details and updates concerning the 2011 Impact Award in early June.

Finally, we’ve recently undertaken a consumer research project focused on produce packaging. You can expect to see those results in early September.

On May 11, industry leaders will have an opportunity to learn more about the Produce Traceability Initiative’s ongoing work during PMA’s Fresh Connections: Minneapolis at the Hilton Minneapolis in Minnesota. During this interactive, one-day event, attendees will hear thought-provoking presentations and engage in real-world planning with their peers from the entire fresh produce supply chain. The program will help participants:

• Understand why they cannot wait for new regulation on traceability
• Learn what PTI is and how it’s changed in the last 12 months
• Hear firsthand accounts of early PTI adopters reporting increased profits and efficiencies
• Learn how the industry can move from “commodity killers” to “surgical recalls”
• Understand what supply chain partners can learn from one another

In addition, attendees will hear from PMA’s Vice President of Supply Chain Efficiencies Ed Treacy and be able to network with regional industry leaders and companies.

For more details or to register, visit the PMA website.

Last Wednesday PMA Director Food Safety & Technology Johnna Hepner attended the FDA meeting focused on the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) and preventive controls. The purpose of the meeting was to gather information on preventive controls used by facilities to identify and address hazards associated with specific types of food and specific processes. I had a chance to catch up with Johnna to get her perspectives on what was discussed during the day-long meeting.

FDA officials noted that the agency will take a broad approach to implementing the FSMA; specifically with regard to preventive controls, FDA said these will be science- and risk-based as well as flexible. For fresh produce, the Produce Safety Alliance was mentioned as having a key role in grower training (we recently highlighted the Produce Safety Alliance’s call for volunteers for its Good Agricultural Practices working committees).

FDA also discussed how the U.S. food supply and population has changed; 30 percent of our population is now considered “at risk” due to immune-compromised factors.

In the meeting’s breakout sessions, a number of topics were discussed. Johnna shared with FDA insights on current testing programs in use in the produce industry, including finished product testing. Throughout the day, she heard FDA representatives ask meeting participants questions like “So, how would you do that?”, “Give me examples,” and “What do you think we should do?”

FDA’s openness in seeking industry guidance as it begins developing rules to implement FSMA is very encouraging, while public meetings like these present our industry with an opportunity to share what we know with the agency. Comments on preventive controls are due to FDA by May 20.

As more meetings are scheduled, we’ll publicize them here and let you know how you can get involved.

Last week I was at the Canadian Produce Marketing Association convention in Montreal. As always, it was a fun, insightful event with a great combination of networking, learning, and marketing.

It was also outgoing CPMA president Dan Dempster’s swan song and incoming CPMA president Ron Lemaire’s debut. For more than 30 years, Dan has shepherded the Canadian produce industry, building networks and relationships, advocating before government(s), growing an expert and capable staff, and infusing all his work with warmth and humor. Ron is returning to CPMA after a few years on hiatus, fully grounded in CPMA and well-known to its members.

The tributes to Dan were heartfelt and well-deserved. Thanks, Dan, for your devotion to CPMA and the produce industry. Welcome back, Ron.

The USDA Food Atlas has been updated to include a vast amount of new information about consumers in the United States.

The objectives of the Atlas are to assemble statistics on food environment indicators to stimulate research on the determinants of food choices and diet quality and to provide a spatial overview of a community’s ability to access healthy food and its success in doing so. Those reasons in and of themselves are sufficient to have such a resource. And the work that will be done with the data in terms of social issues and improvements is worthy.

The data, however, may hold key information for your businesses as well. The Atlas assembles statistics on three broad categories of food environment factors:

• Food choices—Indicators of the community’s access to and acquisition of healthy, affordable food, such as: access and proximity to a grocery store; number of food stores and restaurants; expenditures on fast foods; food and nutrition assistance program participation; quantities of foods eaten; food prices; food taxes; and availability of local foods
• Health and well-being—Indicators of the community’s success in maintaining healthy diets, such as: food insecurity; diabetes and obesity rates; and physical activity levels
• Community characteristics—Indicators of community characteristics that might influence the food environment, such as: demographic composition; income and poverty; population loss; metro-nonmetro status; natural amenities; and recreation and fitness centers

USDA notes that the Atlas currently includes 168 indicators of the food environment. The year and geographic level of the indicators vary to better accommodate data from a variety of sources. Some data are from the last Census of Population in 2000 while others are as recent as 2009. Some are at the county level while others are at the state or regional level. The most recent county-level data are used whenever possible.

You can slice and dice the data in a variety of ways; the data folks in your office will have fun. Compare restaurant spending per capita from 2002 and 2007 and see the data mapped to help inform your decision about where to put a new restaurant outlet. Check out median household income and map it as one more factor to help refine what you market in each of your stores. Look at a variety of socio-economic factors that will help you target your business offerings. And there’s much more than that.

It’s a great tool with robust information. Check it out.

Last week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced it plans to conduct a study that will evaluate risk perceptions of produce growers, food retailers, and consumers after a food recall resulting from a foodborne illness outbreak. The purpose of this research is to help FDA better understand whether the magnitude and duration of the decline in commodity consumption following food recalls can be partly explained by grower and retailer speculations and projections about consumers’ attitudes toward food recalls resulting from foodborne illness outbreaks.

The study will be conducted under a cooperative agreement between the Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition and the Center for Risk Communication Research (CRCR) at the University of Maryland. Using an online questionnaire, the CRCR will use a convenience sample of 900 participants (180 growers, 180 retailers, 540 consumers) drawn from industry networks (for the growers and retailers), and a web-based panel of U.S. households (for the consumers).

Electronic or written comments on this project are due by June 14. For more information, contact Denver Presley, Jr., Office of Information Management, Food and Drug Administration, (301) 796-3793.

I’m very curious to see the insights this research will reveal, particularly the consumer perspectives. When our industry has experienced outbreaks in the past, I’ve had family members share with me their opinions on fresh produce safety and confidence in the food supply, so I’m interested to see if their (usually strong) viewpoints align with what FDA finds.

According to a report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, as a result of increased disposal income, urbanization and food safety concerns, consumers in China are consuming more U.S. food products. While the Chinese economy has slowed this past year, it is still growing faster than any other major economy.

The report found that, in response to rising inflation and food safety concerns, more Chinese people are cutting back on eating out and are now cooking more and more at home. Consumers of imported food are generally expatriates and high and upper-middle income locals. They are least affected by inflation and pay great attention to food safety. Consumption of western style products continues to grow as they generally are regarded as good quality, nutritious and safe. Some products, such as fresh fruit, frozen vegetables and nuts, have much deeper penetration, and some supermarkets and convenience stores are becoming more interested in imported products. Rapid economic growth has caused the total U.S. dollar sales value of food and beverages to rise by 26.2 percent to $132 billion in 2008.

In terms of China’s infrastructure, retail distribution channels have not grown to match the number and quality of retail outlets. China does not have a nationwide network of trucks, highways and cold storage warehouses that can efficiently deliver supplies from the manufacturer or importer to the store shelf. A lack of appreciation for the value of maintaining the cold chain creates special problems for temperature sensitive items. With some notable exceptions, distribution is handled on a store-by-store or city-by-city basis, with stores receiving most imports through a local distributor, often even when alternatives exist.

In the retail sector, while some domestic retailers (including CRV-China Resources Vanguard and Lianhua) have a significant presence, this format is dominated by foreign operators including Carrefour, Wal-Mart, Metro, Lotus, Auchan and Tesco. In Shanghai for example, the 82 foreign hypermarkets accounted for 78.6 percent of the total hypermarket sales volume in 2008. Other retail channels, most notably supermarkets, are highly fragmented and controlled by domestic players.

Here on Field to Fork, we talk about global trade issues from a variety of perspectives (click on the Global Trade link on the right side of the screen). In addition to our thoughts on this blog, we also offer members various resources via the PMA website.

According to the Center for Food Integrity’s (CFI) most recent consumer attitudes/beliefs study, those consumers identified as “early adopters” are those who can drive social change. “Early adopters” are also characterized by being deeply skeptical of claims and believe that innovations only benefit big agri-business. They also prefer to receive information (be it nutrition, food safety, etc.) from academia and see a conflict of interest when information is provided by companies and trade association. I learned of this study during a meeting by CFI at the American Farm Bureau, as a part of a very full day in Washington, DC on April 1.

While others in the meeting room represented other sectors of the U.S. agricultural industry (due in large part of their sponsorship of the CFI study), I found some of the concepts presented interesting in how they may apply to the fresh produce business. The study noted that there is an inverse relationship between the size of the entity/business and perceived shared values with the consumer. In other words, the bigger you are, the more distance there is to overcome in connecting with consumers’ beliefs.

This was supported by a study finding that consumers “trust farmers but they aren’t sure contemporary production is still farming” as well as a value perception among consumers that small farms rank high on the “responsibility to produce safe food” and a “commitment to protecting the environment.”

Those of us in the industry know that larger producers and processors are supplied by hundreds or more of small family farms. To let consumers know this, I think we need to do a better job in telling that story (along with our industry’s sustainability and access efforts) - whether it’s through traditional means such as advertising and websites or through newer channels like social media and QR codes.

What do you think?